China Crisis Deepens, Globalists Are Losing – Bitcoin Magazine
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“Fed Watch” is a macro podcast true to bitcoin’s insurgent nature. In each episode, we question the mainstream and Bitcoin stories by looking at current macro events from around the world, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I get down the dirt on August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, some shocking Chinese economic data, and talk about the price of bitcoin and ether.
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Food and shelter components of CPI
After covering some charts like bitcoin, the S&P 500, Germany’s DAX and European natural gas futures, we dive into this week’s big topic, the US CPI data.
In this episode, I go deeper into the biggest story of the week, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ CPI report. We pay special attention to the food and protection components of CPI. The rate of increase in food prices slowed, leading me to interpret that the peak in food price increases has occurred. We also cover protection costs in the consumer price index. It is the largest single component by weight and has continued to grow. However, in the episode I point out a couple of reasons why protection is a very lagging indicator and is likely 18-24 months behind other prices.
In terms of CPI, the main takeaway from this podcast is the need to emphasize monthly changes rather than years. If you only look at annualized rates, you’ll find yourself thinking prices are going up 8% annually right now, when in fact they’ve been up less than 1% annually over the past two months. It makes all the difference.
China’s exports and demand for oil
At “Fed Watch”, we are proud to have been on top of the Chinese crisis from the beginning. While others were – and still are – on the China rising bandwagon, we called out China’s apparent economic decline and fundamentally weak geopolitical position.
Well, things aren’t getting any better for them. This week we had reports of China’s exports falling off a cliff. In an article in the South China Morning Post, we read that instead of the normal peak season for Chinese exports, with the approaching holiday season in the US and Europe, Chinese exporters claim to be seeing a figure that looks “out of season”. .”
“This decline reflects a decline in freight demand, resulting both from excess inventory by some importers as inflation reduces spending by some consumers and as others switch to other goods and services as the pandemic recedes,” said research director Judah Levine. In Freightos. “Many retailers placed seasonal orders earlier this year to avoid delays.”
Not only are their exports collapsing, but the demand for oil is collapsing as well. I read a report explaining that China’s oil demand has fallen for the first time since 2002!
“The main downward pressure on oil prices in recent days has been a report that China’s annual oil demand may contract for the first time since 2002 due to Covid restrictions under Beijing’s zero-Covid policy.”
This is consistent with what I have predicted, that world oil demand has peaked in at least the next couple of decades. The main cause of the drop in demand is deglobalization and the related economic contraction. The world has grown to require about 100 million barrels of oil per day, and with the deglobalization recession, I see it dropping to 90 million barrels per day and staying there for years.
Populism, nationalism and anti-globalists
In the last episode of the program, we talk about the political situation in Europe. The Swedish elections have been concluded and the anti-globalist right has taken over their parliament. It’s a result that seemed to come out of nowhere. In a country notoriously tilted and seen as a bulwark of contemporary European brand socialism, Sweden has moved swiftly against global Marxists.
Two more important elections are coming up before the end of the year. Italy, where the Italian brothers and their anti-globalist coalition are set to take over a potential supermajority in their parliament, and the United States, where anti-globalists are expected to gain control of both houses of Congress.
This is indeed a huge swing against the Marxism of Davos, Washington and Brussels. It is also a very good sign for individualism, decentralized governance and the rise of neutral money.
This is a guest post by Ansel Lindner. The opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of BTC Inc. or Bitcoin Magazine.