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Crypto Technical Analysis Report | 25th-November-2022

Crypto Technical Analysis Report

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Crypto markets continued to trade mixed, boosted by the November Federal Reserve meeting, which indicated that the Federal Reserve would soon regain its footing with aggressive monetary policy. All major cryptocurrencies traded higher on Thursday. Solana gained the most at 11%, followed by BNB at 10%. Ethereum is up 4% in early Asian hours. The value of the global crypto market increased by about $824.92 billion, 1.4% in the last 24 hours. However, total trading volume fell 22% to just over $47.27 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index scored 22 out of 100, more than double the bottom of the bear market.

BTC faced a 7.3% drop on 20-21. November because it was investigating a $15,500 grant. Although the correction seems small, the show has caused $230 million in liquidations in futures contracts. Despite the bulls’ best efforts, Bitcoin has failed to post a daily close above $17,000 since November 11. The move explains why the $1.14 billion in monthly options on Bitcoin, which expires on November 25, could benefit the bears despite a 6% recovery from the $15,500 low. BTC/USD avoids volatility after yesterday’s fresh two-year low. The pair was rated by analysts a day ahead of the US market’s Digital Currency Group (DCG). Possible liquidity problems at DCG-owned Genesis Trading have continued to trouble those already expecting more losses in bitcoin and altcoins. The Bulls need to raise the price above $18,000 on Nov. 25 to turn the tables and avoid a potential $245 million loss. However, Bitcoin bulls had recently liquidated $230 million in leveraged futures positions, making them less inclined to push the price higher anytime soon. That being said, the most likely scenario is $15,000-$17,000, giving the bears a reasonable profit.

There is little hope for the bulls on Ether’s weekly or longer term. The bearish channel has added 69% negative performance YTD, weighing down the price of ETH while providing resistance at $1,200. In other troubling news for the Ethereum ecosystem, decentralized finance (Defi) platform AAVE fell victim to a short seller attack on November 22 aimed at profiting from undersecured loans. Interestingly, a similar exploit occurred on Mango Markets’ Defi app in October. While not a direct attack on the Ethereum network, the attacker has exposed critical vulnerabilities in some of the leading decentralized secured lending applications. Hence, the $1.13 billion monthly Ether options expiring on November 25th are putting major price pressure on the bulls, even though ETH gained 11% on November 22nd and 24th. Ether bulls need to push the price above $1,300 on Nov. 25 to break even and avoid a potential $215 million loss. However, the ethereal bulls seem to have been unlucky, as the 2014 Mt. Gox hack, the Bitcoin wallet moved 10,000 BTC on November 23rd.

On the macro front, sentiment among Bitcoin investors soured after Genesis Trading, part of the multi-sector Digital Currency Group (DCG), suspended payments in its crypto-lending arm on November 16. More importantly, DCG owns the fund company Grayscale, which is responsible for bitcoin’s largest fund. institutional investment vehicle, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). In addition, bitcoin mining company Core Scientific has warned that it has “significant doubts” about continuing operations in the next 12 months due to its financial uncertainty. In its quarterly report filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on November 22, the company reported a net loss of $434.8 million for the third quarter of 2022. Finally, on November 22, US Senator Elizabeth Warren correlated the fall of the FTX stock exchange with the 2008 subprime mortgages. Warren Buffet said the collapse of FTX should be a “wake-up call” for regulators to enforce legislation on the crypto industry.

Technical outlook:

Bitcoin:

Bitcoin (BTC) chart

BTC broke and closed below the long-term support of $17,500 – $18,000 made a low of $15,500. After this move, the asset started consolidating in a very narrow range from $16,000 to $17,250 and made a series of small candles. The bulls faced stiff resistance and were unable to push prices above the key $17,500-$18,000 level and started moving lower, making a new weekly low of $15,476. However, prices did not stay below the range and rebounded to the $16,000 level. If BTC breaks and holds below $15,500, it can further fall to $12,000 and to prove a relief rally, it needs to break and close above $17,550.

ETH:

Ethereum Chart |  25 November 2022
Ethereum (ETH) chart

ETH encountered sharp resistance at the descending trendline (drawn from the all-time high) and saw a steep decline. Prices fell nearly 36% to a low of $1,074. The asset broke the uptrend and long-held support at $1,200 and posted a weekly close below it. After this move, ETH showed signs of recovery and rose to $1,348. It struggled to stay above the uptrend and saw a correction, falling to $1,079. ETH has strong support at $1,000, with $1,400 serving as strong resistance for the asset.

BNB:

BNB Chart |  25 November 2022
BNB chart

BNB has been very volatile for the past 30 days. From a high of $398, prices corrected almost 35% and fell to $250. The asset found support at $255 and rose to $303 in three trading sessions. BNB is consolidating and trading at $300 key resistance (horizontal trendline and 200-day moving average). If it closes and sustains above this level, prices may further rise to $336.

Weekly snapshot:

USD ($) 18.11.22 24.11.22 the previous week this week
Closed Closed % change High Low High Low
BTC $16,688 $16,604 -0.50% $17,109 $15,873 $16,798 $15,599
ETH $1,201 $1,204 0.26% $1,288 $1,178 $1,228 $1,081
BNB $267.91 $300.43 12.14% $290.72 $264.40 $303.06 $250.66
crypto 1w – Volume % Change (Global)
Bitcoin (BTC) -26.57%
Ethereum (ETH) -22.41%
Binance Coin (BNB) -14.65%
Resistance 2 $22,500 $1,750 $1.20 336 dollars
Resistance 1 $17,500 $1,400 $1.05 300 dollars
USD BTC ETH Matt BNB
Support 1 $15,000 $1,000 $0.75 255 dollars
Support 2 $12,000 881 dollars $0.62 $215

Market updates:

  • Singaporean cryptolender Hodlnaut is reportedly under police investigation for scams and fraud. Issuance began on August 8 after the lender cited a liquidity crisis and suspended withdrawals on the platform.
  • Belgium’s financial regulator has reaffirmed its position that Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and other crypto-assets issued solely by computer code are not securities.
  • Binance plans to allocate $1 billion to a proposed industry revival fund, while its CEO revealed his intentions in a new bid for bankrupt crypto-lending firm Voyager’s assets from its US operations.
  • 2014 Mt. Gox hack Bitcoins are on the move again, with 65 BTC sent to exchange HitBTC on November 22nd.

Disclaimer: This report is not intended to be used as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any investor. All investors should consider such factors in consultation with their chosen professional advisor when deciding whether an investment is appropriate. The Company has prepared this report based on information available to it, including information from public sources that has not been independently verified. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, correctness, completeness or reliability of the information, opinions or conclusions presented herein. This report is preliminary and subject to change; The Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any reports to reflect events or circumstances occurring after the date hereof or to reflect unanticipated events. Trading and investing in crypto-assets, e.g. Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, etc. are highly speculative and subject to market risks. The author’s analysis is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice.

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