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September is historically the worst month for BTC since 2013

September is historically the worst month for BTC since 2013

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If historical data is anything to go by, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) may continue to decline this September, which has been the worst month on record for the crypto asset since 2013.

Available data shows that the value of the flagship digital asset has increased in only two Septembers between 2013 and 2021, which were in 2015 and 2016. Outside of those two, BTC has recorded an average monthly decline of 6 percent.

Bitcoin monthly income
Bitcoin Monthly Earnings

However, the effect of September is not unique to BTC. The S&P 500 has also been in a bear market for most of September since 1928.

From 1928 to today, the S&P 500 index fell by an average of 1.1 percent in September. Experts argue that the general decline in the market in September is due to the behavior of investors.

calendar month returns the s&p500 index 1928-present
Source: Jeroen Blokland Blog

According to Elena Dure, most investors exit their market positions usually in September to lock in their profits or even tax losses as the year draws to a close.

The asset liquidation rate is also higher when schools resume in September and the need for cash to pay school expenses arises.

Considering how the BTC price has mostly mirrored the performance of the S&P since the pandemic, it won’t be entirely surprising if the BTC price continues to fall this month.

Will this September buck the trend?

While many investors want the price of Bitcoin to return to previous highs, the possibility of a red September has already loomed after the asset lost all its gains over the past few months in the last days of August.

After weeks of trading around $20,000 and many analysts suggesting that the price may have bottomed out, BTC has fallen below $20,000. In the last 24 hours, the value of the cryptocurrency fell by 1.4% and by seven-day measures by 2.2%.

This year alone, the price of Bitcoin has fallen by about 59 percent.

Bitcoin Negative Monthly Breakdown
Source: Glassnode

The likelihood that September 2022 will be an outlier like 2015 and 2016 is also minimal, given that conditions associated with declining asset values ​​will continue.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned that the US economy faces more “pain” as officials struggle to contain rising inflation.

The statement has led to several experts predicting that the FOMC could raise interest rates further in September.

On top of that, the US Labor Department revealed that unemployment rose to 3.7% – the highest since February – again signaling the struggles of the US economy.

Posted in: Bitcoin, Analysis

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