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“The bond market bubble has popped”

"The bond market bubble has popped"

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After closing at its lowest weekly close in nearly two years, Bitcoin (BTC) faces a volatile macro environment as the new week begins.


The biggest cryptocurrency is on a roll as hedge funds across the global economy take a hit and the US dollar rises. After a bullish start, September is suddenly living up to its colloquial moniker in the crypto market, “Septembear”, and BTC/USD is down 6.2% since the start of the month. The bad news just continues for hodlers, who are holding on to dormant coins more and more as the dollar rises and the general public’s desire to diversify into riskier plays continues to wane.

Macro is expected to be everyone’s top priority this week. Here we explore what Bitcoin’s price movement might be. Here are some considerations to consider when determining where Bitcoin could go next, given economic conditions that rival any major historical upheaval in the last century or more.

BTC/USD returns to November 2020 at weekly close

However, the past seven days managed to push Bitcoin to its lowest weekly level since November 2020, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, but did not match the previous week’s losses (down 3.1% vs. 11%).

Bitcoin has therefore gone back in time before the breakout that drove it past the previous halving cycle all-time high as bearish pressure intensifies.

The average traveler doesn’t like the feeling of déjà vu because most of everything they bought and stored in the previous two years is now underwater. Popular Twitter analyst SB Investments stated after the close: “Looks negative as stocks also want to break support. $BTC just hit a weekly low in this area. On the other hand, everyone is waiting for this.

A crucial counter-argument for bitcoin supporters is whether the market could get a sudden “max pain” move to the upside, eliminating the short bias. The weekly closing price of $18,800 even serves as a convincing local base for the well-known trader Omz. In other markets, the RSI divergence has not gone unnoticed; merchant JACKIS announced its earnings last week.

At the time, he tweeted: “They’ve always marked the exact bottom as well. We only got two touches in oversold territory before.” The US mid-term elections are in early November, and another trading account, IncomeSharks, continued to reverse the forecast, but stopped short of declaring that the bottom had been reached.

On the day’s 4-hour chart, it read: “Elevator down, stairs up”:

“Continue to build the double bottom and new supports, the Midterm Rally remains on the table. Break this structure, remove these objects and find a new base.”

Stocks, fiat destroyed the destruction of the dollar

The volatility that prevailed in the macro markets last week has already returned with a fury, as Monday has barely even begun. The British pound grabbed headlines on the day when it fell 5% to within a few percentage points of USD parity – its lowest level against the dollar. Key trading partner currencies are being destroyed by the unstoppable US dollar. GBP/USD would follow the euro’s loss of value and fall below $1, while the pain forced the Japanese government to artificially prop up the yen’s exchange rate last week.

UR/USD briefly dipped below $0.96 before recovering slightly, although despite Japan’s participation, USD/JPY remains close to its 1990s highs. The warnings have also sent international bonds falling to levels last seen in 2020. The Bloomberg data was accompanied by a warning from market analyst Holger Zschaepitz: “It seems that the bond market bubble has burst. Global bonds have lost another $1.2 billion this week, bringing the total loss from ATH to $12.2 billion.

As futures were lower the day before Wall Street opened, stocks are expected to follow suit. Since the beginning of 2022, the price of Brent crude oil has never fallen below $85 per barrel. Saifedean Ammous, author of the best-selling books “The Fiat Standard” and “The Bitcoin Standard”, reacted to the claim that “global bonds are collapsing in their fiat currencies, which are collapsing against the dollar, which is rapidly losing purchasing power. : “It will be months and years, before the average fiat user realizes how much will be financially destroyed. Poverty is the “new normal”.

Tamadog OKX

So the outlook for Bitcoin is not favorable as the status quo seems to continue as the cryptocurrency is still inversely linked to the strength of the dollar and highly correlated with stocks.

The Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure will be calculated this week and is expected to show continued inflation. However, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) output is expected to continue the recession that began in July in the United States. The US Dollar Index (DXY), currently at its highest level since May 2002, does not appear to be reversing.

Hodlers operate in a traditional bear market environment

Unsurprisingly, long-term investors are refusing to sell, and Bitcoin holders are growing in confidence amid such chaos. The latest data shows that this year’s continued moderation has characterized bitcoin’s bear market. According to onchain analytics company Glassnode, Bitcoin’s so-called Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator is falling to new lows.

When Bitcoin leaves the host wallet at the end of a certain period, the number of dormant days (CDD) is removed. A high CDD indicates that more long-term stored coins are currently in circulation.
According to Glassnode, “Over the past 90 days, the total number of Bitcoin coin days destroyed has practically reached an all-time low. This shows that coins that have been HODLing for months or years are the most dormant they’ve ever been.”

The announcement comes after several weeks of hodl-centric metrics showing a dedication to keeping BTC’s supply locked up for better times ahead. As a percentage of the USD value of the BTC offer, Glassnode also highlighted the proliferation of coins hoarded for at least three months. It agreed that “Bitcoin HODLs appear to be firm and unwavering in their conviction.”

The supply was depicted in the accompanying graphic with the Bitcoin HODL Waves measurement, which divides it according to the coin’s resting state.

Whales continue to determine support and resistance

When it comes to spotting price movements, analysts follow Bitcoin’s largest volume investors, while experienced users stay away from the “sell” button. Due to the volume of trading related to whale money, the current trading area is an area of ​​interest.

According to on-chain tracking tool Whalemap, BTC/USD is currently trapped between two resistance levels as large buys add more weight to a given support price, and the same goes for resistance levels. According to a summary by the Whalemap team late last week, owning $BTC between 19 and 18,000 is crucial.

A chart accompanying the article revealed that Bitcoin could only recover to a maximum of $20,000 due to whale resistance. However, additional data from the research company Santimenti shows that the overall BTC exposure of whales has fallen to a two-year low.

Second week of the “Extreme Fear” series

Cryptocurrency market sentiment has now been in “severe dread” mode for over a week, returning to 2022 norms as usual. A typical investor could not be worried about the future, according to the Crypto Fear & Greed index, which measures the general mood of the cryptocurrency market.

The Fear & Greed score on September 26 was 21/100, with a score of 25/100 indicating very high fear. This year, the market had its longest “severe scare” ever, lasting more than two months, so the cold is nothing new.

According to Santime, the increased interest in social media during the weekend can offer hope. This week showed via Twitter comments that “among the top 100 crypto assets, $BTC has focused on more than 26% of conversations for the first time since mid-July”.
“Our background testing reveals that over 20% for Bitcoin is good for the sector,” the author writes.

Tamadoge coin debuts on OKX exchange

Stay tuned to the crypto news feed here on InsideBitcoins for more updates on Tamadog’s initial public offering as the September 27th IPO date approaches. The OKX website has announced that the TAMA withdrawal will open at 13:00 UTC on the listing day. Investors should do their own research and consider all factors before making a potentially high-reward decision. TAMA’s entire paper and roadmap can be read here.


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